Tuesday, August 17, 2010

The Climate, It is A'Changing

Well, of course it is. It's not static - even on the timescales of human life. So it's changing.

Now, of course, are we in the 70's where best evidence was that it was cooling, or the early 2000's where it seemed to be warming, or the last few years where it may have been cooling again (although this seems to have been a temporary effect due to the prolonged solar minimum which is now over)?

Anyway. Enough of that. We need decent, long-run statistics. Then we can work out the basic up or down thing, then we can look at significance, then we can look at both causes and what we might do about it, if anything. And note that causes and corrections need not be directly related. You can make hot air balloons  rise by throwing out some ballast as well as by heating the air.

So this was fun (h/t to Lubos). Note that this doesn't "prove" anything about climate change, either way - it just shows that the well-derided statistical methods in a key global-warming paper fail the Huff test.

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