VoterPower reckons it really doesn't matter - this is an "Ultra safe" - aka Labour - constituency:
But, the SNP clearly believe that they have a real chance of winning the seat - and, on the Holyrood record, they should do. Michael Matheson1 is the local constituency MSP (having previously been a list MSP for Central Scotland).
And the 2007 election results for what was then Falkirk West show a 2.7% lead:
|Michael Matheson||SNP|| |
|Dennis Goldie||Labour|| |
Now, of course the constituency has changed, the turn out was terrible (just above 50%) and the personalities are different. It would be difficult to argue that Labour are more popular after 3 more years of Westminster misrule or that the SNP haven't demonstrated that they can competently run Scotland.
Eric Joyce has done his reputation some good by finally publicly disagreeing with the party machine but came a cropper with the advertising hoardings around his new Denny office. John McNally is a nice guy and a good local councillor (in an area with some considerable reputation for some oddity amongst its elected members). No-one else has a chance ...
If I was in Buckingham, I would be voting UKIP. But that's as much a negative vote - Bercow the 'sleaze fighter' has not impressed - as what I am expecting to cast here2. If I was somewhere with a Tory candidate with half a chance, I would probably vote for them. Here it is a simple choice between a party I despise with a candidate who has proven personally despicable, and an overly socialist bunch whose core policy I oppose but will have a decent local MP. Oh well, localism is the new Thatcherism, I suppose ...
1. I am surprised by this inclusion on his site though, especailly as it is linked from his official Scottish Parliament page:
NOTE: This demo is purely for demonstration purposes and all the content relating to products, services and events are fictional and are designed to showcase a live site. All images are copyrighted to their respective owners.
2. Apart from the basic policy of withdrawal (or, de minimis, repatriation of much of our sovereignty - in effect, withdrawal) from the EU, I am skeptical about much of the UKIP policy: doubling the size of the TA is impractical (we're not currently recruited to strength anyway) and banning the burka et al is simply un-British ...